Verdict
Plumber is the safer bet: it scores 26/100 against 41/100 for Automotive Mechanic — 15 points less exposed to AI.
| Metric | Automotive Mechanic | Plumber |
|---|---|---|
| AI Fear Score | 41/100 | 26/100 |
| Risk band | Watch | Resilient |
| Automation probability | 59% | 35% |
| LLM task exposure | 20% | 15% |
| Median pay (BLS) | $47,000 | $61,000 |
| US workers | 760,000 | 490,000 |
| Timeline | Mostly resilient — diagnostics get smarter, hands stay essential. | Resilient — varied, physical, on-site problem solving. |
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Plumber is safer. It scores 26/100 vs 41/100 — Plumber keeps more tasks that need hands-on work, judgment or personal trust, while more of Automotive Mechanic's core tasks are automatable.
Plumber pays more at the median: $61,000 vs $47,000 (BLS May 2024).
Scores are estimates, not predictions — two research anchors applied to task mixes, with BLS May-2024 wages and employment. Not career advice.